Israel Election Leaves No Clear Winner as Coalition Talks Loom

Israelis went to the polls on October 27, and by October 28 there was no clear winner. As in every previous Israeli election, the next government will have to be a coalition, and the central question is who can assemble at least 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats.

Initial counting by the Central Elections Committee placed Likud first among individual parties with 27 seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc was projected at 54 seats, compared with 50 for the bloc led by opposition figure Gadi Eisenkot.

Four exit polls published on election night showed how tight the contest is. Kan 11 and Channel 13 both put the two blocs level at 51 seats each. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu 52 seats against 49 for Eisenkot. Channel 15 was the most favourable to the incumbent, projecting 55 seats for his bloc and 49 for the opposition.

Parliamentary seats are allocated in proportion to each party's share of the national vote, provided the party clears the 3.25 percent threshold. A government needs the backing of at least 61 lawmakers. Neither main bloc reached that figure in the exit polls or in the early count, so one of them must find additional partners.

The Arab-led parties Ra'am and the Joint List could hold the balance of power, with exit polls suggesting they would win a combined 16 to 19 seats. The political barriers are considerable, however. Netanyahu has called a coalition with Arab parties "shameful", and leading figures in the Jewish-led opposition have also ruled out governing with them. That leaves combinations that may work arithmetically but face serious political obstacles.

Netanyahu's bloc consists of Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Eisenkot's bloc includes his Yashar party, the Together list associated with former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan's Democrats.

Once the results are certified, the president will give the mandate to the member of the Knesset considered most likely to build a majority. That person has 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If they fail, another lawmaker can be given a chance. If no one succeeds, Israel could face another election, as it did repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister with 19 years in office across three stints, remains caretaker prime minister while negotiations unfold. He is also standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

Official results are due on November 4. Coalition negotiations could take considerably longer.