Lula's 51.79% Win Leaves Brazilian Embassy in Tel Aviv

The Brazilian political cycle concluded on Sunday with a result that stabilizes the country's current diplomatic posture.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection with 51.79 percent of the valid vote, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21 percent.

Lula, the leader of the Workers Party, will serve a third non-consecutive term. His opponent, a senator from the Liberal Party, campaigned on a platform of closer ties with Jerusalem. Bolsonaro stated he did not accept the results, though no clear legal path for a challenge emerged immediately.

The outcome preserves the status quo established by Lula's previous administration. In January 2024, his government supported South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Two months later, Lula drew a comparison between Palestinian suffering in Gaza and the Holocaust, a remark that sparked a diplomatic crisis. CONIB, the Jewish umbrella organization in Brazil, called the comparison a distortion that offended Holocaust survivors and their descendants. The Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires also issued a statement criticizing the analogy.

Bolsonaro had outlined specific diplomatic goals during a June 28, 2026, meeting with Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires. He promised that in 2027, Brazil would appoint an ambassador to Israel and move its embassy to Jerusalem. During that same event, he praised the 120,000 Jews in Brazil as among the brightest in medicine, industry, science, culture, and business.

The election result interrupts a regional trend of strengthening ties with Israel. Since 2023, several neighbors have reversed previous policies. Argentine President Javier Milei made support for Israel central to his foreign policy. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira restored diplomatic relations severed by his predecessor. Honduran President Nasry Asfura formally recognized Israel's new ambassador. Chilean President José Antonio Kast is rebuilding diminished ties. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, elected in May, restored severed ties, sent his foreign minister to inaugurate an embassy in Jerusalem, and withdrew from the ICJ genocide case.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Bolsonaro on X/Twitter the day after the first round on October 4. He expressed a desire to restore friendship between the two nations. With Lula now back in office, the planned embassy move to Jerusalem is paused for the next term.